Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign

3:2

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 1.92.3
High danger: 42
Chances: 79
Shots: 1625

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal25

7Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances2

1.86Expected goals2.29

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	1–3	0–0	0.5–0.7
2nd	4–10	4–3	3–0	0.8–0.9
3rd	5–6	2–3	1–2	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.29
GSAx: +0.29

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 13
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: -1.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:18Penalty
1st 11:07Penalty
1st 11:58Penalty
1st 14:53Penalty
1st 17:37Penalty
1st 18:22Penalty
1st 19:55Martin Chromiak (1–0)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 0:27Robbie Russo (1–1)low · 55 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 5:47Jalen Luypen (1–2)low · 13 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 8:46Penalty
2nd 14:59Penalty
2nd 19:02Penalty
2nd 19:25Cole Guttman (2–2)5v4 · medium · 54 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 5:35Martin Chromiak (3–2)high · 12 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 7:58Penalty