Laval Rocket at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Laval Rocket

1:3

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

LAVWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.71.9
High danger: 32
Chances: 113
Shots: 3424

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal24

11Scoring chances3

3High-danger chances2

2.74Expected goals1.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	3–2	0–1	0.6–0.8
2nd	17–6	4–1	1–1	1.3–0.6
3rd	9–9	4–0	2–0	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: +1.74

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -1.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:44Penalty
1st 15:16Penalty
1st 16:16Avery Hayes (0–1)4v5 · low · wrist · 41 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 0:31Penalty
2nd 1:58Penalty
2nd 14:44Penalty
2nd 18:26Penalty
2nd 19:02Alex Belzile (1–1)5v4 · high · tip · 9 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 19:16Aidan McDonough (1–2)low · wrist · 27 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 4:27Avery Hayes (1–3)low · wrist · 48 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 8:38Penalty
3rd 13:39Penalty