Henderson Silver Knights at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Henderson Silver Knights

4:1

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

HSKMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 4.52.8
High danger: 134
Chances: 178
Shots: 3526

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal26

17Scoring chances8

13High-danger chances4

4.48Expected goals2.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	4–3	3–2	1.3–1.0
2nd	14–8	6–4	4–2	1.5–1.2
3rd	11–10	7–1	6–0	1.7–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.48
GSAx: +0.48

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.82
GSAx: +1.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:18Brandon Hickey (1–0)low · 14 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 10:40Penalty
1st 13:49Raphael Lavoie (2–0)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 14:23Kai Uchacz (3–0)high · 15 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 14:48Penalty
1st 17:17Penalty
1st 17:17Penalty
1st 17:50Penalty
2nd 4:23Mitch McLain (4–0)high · 20 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 4:51Penalty
2nd 10:15Penalty
2nd 10:15Penalty
2nd 17:14Kalan Lind (4–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 5:08Penalty
3rd 12:05Penalty
3rd 15:22Penalty