AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 28

Manitoba Moose at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Manitoba Moose
1:0
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

MBBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
3.83.8
High danger
58
Chances
2217
Shots
3432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal32
22Scoring chances17
5High-danger chances8
3.81Expected goals3.78

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–1213–63–22.1–1.4
2nd14–117–61–41.4–1.4
3rd4–92–51–20.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
34
Saves
33
Allowed
1
xGA
3.81
GSAx
+2.81
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
32
Saves
32
Allowed
0
xGA
3.78
GSAx
+3.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:47Penalty
  • 1st 9:20Penalty
  • 1st 15:15Penalty
  • 1st 16:06Samuel Fagemo (1–0)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 18:55Penalty
  • 2nd 0:19Penalty
  • 2nd 14:10Penalty
  • 2nd 16:13Penalty
  • 2nd 16:13Penalty
  • 2nd 16:43Penalty
  • 3rd 5:50Penalty
  • 3rd 9:45Penalty
  • 3rd 13:52Penalty
  • 3rd 15:02Penalty
  • 3rd 19:43Penalty