AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 28

Bridgeport Islanders at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Bridgeport Islanders
4:6
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

BRIPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
40%60%
xG
2.72.9
High danger
44
Chances
913
Shots
3026

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal26
9Scoring chances13
4High-danger chances4
2.69Expected goals2.85

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–113–61–00.5–1.0
2nd13–83–32–21.1–1.0
3rd11–73–41–21.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI38:26 of the 3rd11:3411:34+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
2.68
GSAx
-1.32
Marcus Högberg
Shots faced
26
Saves
20
Allowed
6
xGA
2.85
GSAx
-3.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:32Travis Mitchell (1–0)low · 47 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 11:39Matthew Highmore (2–0)medium · 7 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 15:15Joey Abate (2–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 1st 18:38Georgii Merkulov (2–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 1st 18:57Penalty
  • 1st 18:57Penalty
  • 2nd 12:02Penalty
  • 2nd 13:47Riley Tufte (2–3)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 2nd 14:44Riley Tufte (2–4)low · 29 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 3rd 0:27Penalty
  • 3rd 7:04Penalty
  • 3rd 8:26James Hagens (2–5)5v4 · low · 33 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 3rd 11:47Penalty
  • 3rd 12:53Cole Eiserman (3–5)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 14:44Riley Tufte (3–6)high · 12 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 3rd 17:07Cole McWard (4–6)low · 57 ft · beat Michael DiPietro