Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears

2:4

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.42.4
High danger: 26
Chances: 911
Shots: 2423

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal23

9Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances6

2.44Expected goals2.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–4	4–2	0–1	0.9–0.4
2nd	8–10	3–6	1–4	0.7–1.3
3rd	5–9	2–3	1–1	0.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: +0.44

Mitch Gibson

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.41
GSAx: -1.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:53Boris Katchouk (0–1)high · 12 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
1st 11:10Penalty
2nd 1:47Penalty
2nd 2:27Ilya Protas (1–1)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 3:29Boris Katchouk (1–2)high · 11 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
2nd 4:16Penalty
2nd 15:28Penalty
3rd 4:41Penalty
3rd 13:05Brett Leason (2–2)grade A · rebound · 19 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 14:10Phil Tomasino (2–3)low · 41 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
3rd 15:13Penalty
3rd 15:13Penalty
3rd 18:23Penalty
3rd 19:00Boris Katchouk (2–4)empty net · low · 79 ft · beat Mitch Gibson