San Jose Barracuda at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Jose Barracuda

2:4

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SJCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 4.22.3
High danger: 52
Chances: 1611
Shots: 4223

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal23

16Scoring chances11

5High-danger chances2

4.15Expected goals2.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–8	8–5	3–1	1.7–0.8
2nd	14–8	4–2	1–1	1.3–0.7
3rd	11–7	4–4	1–0	1.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 40
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.15
GSAx: +2.15

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: -1.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:31Penalty
1st 2:31Penalty
1st 4:06Penalty
1st 13:44Penalty
1st 14:56Jani Nyman (0–1)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 17:40Lleyton Roed (0–2)medium · 25 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 4:44Penalty
2nd 13:46Quentin Musty (1–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 6:13Penalty
3rd 6:35Penalty
3rd 7:29Ty Nelson (1–3)medium · 27 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
3rd 10:25Colin White (2–3)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 19:47Cooper Marody (2–4)empty net · medium · 10 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere