AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 28

Texas Stars at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Texas Stars
3:6
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TEXBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
26%74%
xG
2.33.8
High danger
34
Chances
613
Shots
2840

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal40
6Scoring chances13
3High-danger chances4
2.34Expected goals3.83

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–92–21–00.7–0.5
2nd10–221–60–40.6–2.4
3rd12–93–52–01.1–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX33:41 of the 3rd16:1913:04+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arno Tiefensee
Shots faced
40
Saves
34
Allowed
6
xGA
3.83
GSAx
-2.17
Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
28
Saves
25
Allowed
3
xGA
2.34
GSAx
-0.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:39Penalty
  • 1st 17:57Penalty
  • 1st 17:57Penalty
  • 1st 17:57Penalty
  • 2nd 3:19Sean Chisholm (1–0)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 4:37Penalty
  • 2nd 7:35Josh Bloom (1–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 2nd 8:53Penalty
  • 2nd 8:53Penalty
  • 2nd 12:28Penalty
  • 2nd 13:26Sam Poulin (1–2)5v4 · high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 2nd 18:53Isaac Howard (1–3)low · wrist · 56 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 3rd 3:41Cam Dineen (1–4)medium · wrist · 32 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 3rd 6:54James Hamblin (1–5)low · slap · 30 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 3rd 7:09Ayrton Martino (2–5)high · tip · 11 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 8:54Cross Hanas (3–5)medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 11:16Penalty
  • 3rd 11:16Penalty
  • 3rd 11:16Penalty
  • 3rd 15:03Penalty
  • 3rd 18:13Isaac Howard (3–6)empty net · low · wrist · 70 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee