Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign

2:4

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.23.8
High danger: 44
Chances: 713
Shots: 2440

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal40

7Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances4

2.15Expected goals3.76

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	3–4	2–2	1.0–1.3
2nd	7–13	3–6	1–2	0.6–1.5
3rd	7–16	1–3	1–0	0.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 36
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.76
GSAx: -0.24

Michael Hrabal

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: +0.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:57Cameron Hebig (0–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 3:48Penalty
1st 18:14Penalty
1st 19:19Penalty
1st 19:19Penalty
2nd 6:22Penalty
2nd 9:19Julian Lutz (0–2)low · 57 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 10:25Jakub Dvořák (1–2)low · 57 ft · beat Michael Hrabal
2nd 15:06Kenny Connors (2–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Michael Hrabal
2nd 18:46Penalty
2nd 19:52Penalty
3rd 1:34Penalty
3rd 10:53Penalty
3rd 12:04Penalty
3rd 12:04Andrew Agozzino (2–3)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 15:08Penalty
3rd 19:52Andrew Agozzino (2–4)empty net · low · 146 ft · beat Erik Portillo