AHLDashboard
Sunday, March 29

Colorado Eagles at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Colorado Eagles
2:1
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

COLCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
3.22.6
High danger
65
Chances
118
Shots
3632

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 29% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal32
11Scoring chances8
6High-danger chances5
3.24Expected goals2.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st141233231.01.0
2nd12560401.70.2
3rd101525020.61.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
36
Saves
34
Allowed
2
xGA
3.24
GSAx
+1.24
Shots faced
32
Saves
31
Allowed
1
xGA
2.55
GSAx
+1.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:38Taylor Makar (1–0)medium · tip · 19 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 1st 10:08Rory Kerins (1–1)high · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 1st 15:22Penalty
  • 1st 15:31Penalty
  • 2nd 2:50Penalty
  • 2nd 7:31Penalty
  • 3rd 3:18Penalty
  • 3rd 16:41Taylor Makar (2–1)medium · tip · 23 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev