Springfield Thunderbirds at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Springfield Thunderbirds

4:2

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

SPRPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 3.53.4
High danger: 56
Chances: 99
Shots: 4237

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal37

9Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances6

3.46Expected goals3.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	18–8	3–2	0–2	1.3–0.7
2nd	11–12	1–2	1–2	0.8–1.1
3rd	13–17	5–5	4–2	1.4–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Simon Zajicek

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 38
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: -0.54

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.38
GSAx: +1.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:11Penalty
1st 9:13Penalty
1st 11:33Penalty
1st 16:28Akil Thomas (1–0)low · 25 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 3:43Hunter Skinner (2–0)low · 52 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 7:11Calle Rosén (3–0)low · 38 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 12:10Penalty
2nd 12:16Penalty
2nd 12:16Penalty
2nd 15:26Penalty
3rd 0:17Penalty
3rd 0:50Penalty
3rd 4:21Penalty
3rd 5:57Penalty
3rd 9:25Penalty
3rd 12:27Penalty
3rd 12:27Penalty
3rd 12:27Penalty
3rd 12:27Penalty
3rd 12:27Penalty
3rd 12:27Penalty
3rd 12:56Felix Trudeau (4–0)medium · 29 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
3rd 14:22Penalty
3rd 14:22Penalty
3rd 16:50Riley Duran (4–1)grade A · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 18:46Georgii Merkulov (4–2)low · 33 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko