San Jose Barracuda at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Jose Barracuda

1:4

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SJCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 3.62.2
High danger: 55
Chances: 158
Shots: 3623

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal23

15Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances5

3.56Expected goals2.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–9	6–3	4–1	1.5–0.8
2nd	11–7	6–2	0–2	1.1–0.7
3rd	13–7	3–3	1–2	0.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 35
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: +2.56

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.20
GSAx: -0.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:24Penalty
1st 12:41Penalty
1st 15:38Penalty
1st 15:44Penalty
1st 17:41Penalty
1st 17:41Penalty
1st 17:41Penalty
1st 17:52Mitchell Stephens (0–1)4v5 · high · 22 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 8:36Colin White (1–1)low · 32 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 11:11Penalty
2nd 11:11Penalty
2nd 11:35J.R. Avon (1–2)high · 8 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 12:11Penalty
2nd 12:11Penalty
2nd 17:02Penalty
3rd 5:20Jakov Novak (1–3)high · 14 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 19:54Lleyton Roed (1–4)empty net · low · 48 ft