AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 29

Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs
4:3
Final / SO
Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
22%78%
xG
1.93.2
High danger
26
Chances
59
Shots
2736

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal36
5Scoring chances9
2High-danger chances6
1.87Expected goals3.22

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–131–40–20.6–1.3
2nd16–92–21–10.9–0.6
3rd3–122–31–30.4–1.2
OT1–20–00–00.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA116:56 of the 3rd3:041:55+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
3.22
GSAx
+0.22
William Rousseau
Shots faced
27
Saves
24
Allowed
3
xGA
1.87
GSAx
-1.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:43Penalty
  • 1st 6:33Gerry Mayhew (0–1)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 7:28Penalty
  • 1st 12:48Penalty
  • 2nd 1:12Penalty
  • 2nd 4:21Samuel Savoie (1–1)low · 50 ft · beat William Rousseau
  • 2nd 8:48Penalty
  • 2nd 14:34Dillon Boucher (2–1)low · 69 ft · beat William Rousseau
  • 2nd 16:25Brett Seney (3–1)high · 11 ft · beat William Rousseau
  • 2nd 19:46Penalty
  • 3rd 6:59Penalty
  • 3rd 6:59Penalty
  • 3rd 6:59Penalty
  • 3rd 7:21Ben Jones (3–2)4v5 · high · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 18:51Ben Jones (3–3)grade A · 5 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue