Manitoba Moose at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Manitoba Moose

5:1

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

MBTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.53.9
High danger: 57
Chances: 914
Shots: 2635

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal35

9Scoring chances14

5High-danger chances7

2.52Expected goals3.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–14	2–6	1–4	1.0–1.6
2nd	7–10	2–3	1–1	0.5–0.9
3rd	9–11	5–5	3–2	1.0–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	3	10:35 of the 3rd	9:25	9:25	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.94
GSAx: +2.94

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.53
GSAx: -2.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:08Penalty
1st 9:14Penalty
1st 10:17Penalty
1st 12:57Henry Thrun (0–1)low · 58 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 13:28Penalty
1st 18:31Chase Yoder (1–1)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 0:57Penalty
2nd 8:49Nikita Chibrikov (2–1)low · 56 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 11:30Penalty
2nd 11:30Penalty
3rd 1:00Phillip Di Giuseppe (3–1)high · 14 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 4:45Penalty
3rd 9:39Penalty
3rd 10:35Walker Duehr (4–1)4v5 · medium · 22 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 11:21Penalty
3rd 12:40Penalty
3rd 17:59Jaret Anderson-Dolan (5–1)empty net · high · 7 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov