Charlotte Checkers at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Charlotte Checkers

5:3

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

CLTROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.12.6
High danger: 33
Chances: 712
Shots: 2426

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 38% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal26

7Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances3

2.07Expected goals2.61

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	4–3	3–0	1.1–0.6
2nd	6–10	2–5	0–1	0.6–1.2
3rd	7–9	1–4	0–2	0.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:39	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kirill Gerasimyuk

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: -0.39

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.07
GSAx: -2.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:28Jack Studnicka (1–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 7:39Penalty
1st 10:05Penalty
1st 11:07Ludvig Jansson (2–0)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 18:02Penalty
1st 18:02Penalty
1st 18:02Penalty
1st 19:46Penalty
2nd 5:17Noah Laaouan (2–1)low · 55 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
2nd 10:18Ben Steeves (3–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 11:52Penalty
2nd 14:31Penalty
2nd 15:51Penalty
2nd 16:22Konsta Helenius (3–2)5v4 · high · 34 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
3rd 7:27Penalty
3rd 10:41MacKenzie Entwistle (4–2)low · 40 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 12:48Penalty
3rd 16:30Penalty
3rd 16:44Gavin Bayreuther (4–3)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
3rd 19:49Sandis Vilmanis (5–3)empty net · low · 80 ft · beat Devon Levi