Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

5:0

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

89%11%

xG: 2.81.2
High danger: 41
Chances: 103
Shots: 3118

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 36% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal18

10Scoring chances3

4High-danger chances1

2.83Expected goals1.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–4	0–2	0–0	0.3–0.4
2nd	13–7	5–1	1–1	1.4–0.4
3rd	12–7	5–0	3–0	1.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 26
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: -2.17

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 18
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.17
GSAx: +1.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:28Penalty
1st 10:07Penalty
1st 12:45Penalty
1st 19:58Penalty
2nd 9:23Penalty
2nd 14:06Eduards Tralmaks (1–0)medium · rebound · 33 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 4:57Eduards Tralmaks (2–0)low · 38 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 6:51Penalty
3rd 12:30Penalty
3rd 12:34Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (3–0)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 17:56Wojciech Stachowiak (4–0)high · 19 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 18:29Amadeus Lombardi (5–0)medium · 23 ft · beat Drew Commesso