Chicago Wolves at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Chicago Wolves

5:0

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

CHIIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.22.7
High danger: 15
Chances: 109
Shots: 2530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal30

10Scoring chances9

1High-danger chances5

2.18Expected goals2.67

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–17	1–6	0–4	0.3–1.7
2nd	12–10	4–3	0–1	1.0–0.9
3rd	7–3	5–0	1–0	0.8–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 30
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: +2.67

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 17
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.77
GSAx: -3.23

William Rousseau

Shots faced: 3
Saves: 3
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.41
GSAx: +0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:10Noah Philp (1–0)medium · 27 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 9:48Penalty
1st 9:48Penalty
2nd 0:43Skyler Brind’Amour (2–0)low · tip · 21 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 1:48Penalty
2nd 1:48Penalty
2nd 1:48Penalty
2nd 2:34Penalty
2nd 19:43Noah Philp (3–0)medium · 24 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 1:07Penalty
3rd 5:13Bradly Nadeau (4–0)low · 35 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 6:54Evan Vierling (5–0)medium · 23 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 10:12Penalty