Colorado Eagles at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Colorado Eagles

5:2

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

COLBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 3.12.1
High danger: 52
Chances: 97
Shots: 2925

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 39% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal25

9Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances2

3.10Expected goals2.09

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–7	5–2	2–0	1.6–0.7
2nd	9–8	3–2	2–1	1.0–0.6
3rd	6–10	1–3	1–1	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.10
GSAx: -1.90

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: +0.09

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:07Ivan Ivan (1–0)high · 11 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 15:47Danil Gushchin (2–0)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 18:09Penalty
2nd 1:12James Hamblin (2–1)high · 6 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 1:31Penalty
2nd 8:34Penalty
2nd 12:34Ivan Ivan (3–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 13:40Maroš Jedlička (4–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 14:14Penalty
2nd 18:19Penalty
3rd 6:43Penalty
3rd 6:49Gustav Stjernberg (5–1)empty net · low · 159 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 7:25Isaac Howard (5–2)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 12:06Penalty