Tucson Roadrunners at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

0:3

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

TUCSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

36%64%

xG: 2.23.0
High danger: 37
Chances: 810
Shots: 2728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal28

8Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances7

2.25Expected goals2.99

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	1–4	0–4	0.4–1.1
2nd	10–9	5–3	2–0	1.0–0.7
3rd	9–9	2–3	1–3	0.9–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.99
GSAx: -0.01

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 27
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: +2.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:57Tyson Hinds (0–1)low · 38 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 16:06Penalty
1st 17:38Penalty
2nd 11:08Penalty
2nd 14:10Penalty
2nd 19:55Penalty
3rd 2:32Jan Myšák (0–2)grade A · rebound · 22 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 7:06Penalty
3rd 19:21Nico Myatovic (0–3)empty net · high · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta