Charlotte Checkers at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Charlotte Checkers

3:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

CLTTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 2.81.2
High danger: 22
Chances: 102
Shots: 3017

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal17

10Scoring chances2

2High-danger chances2

2.84Expected goals1.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–4	2–1	1–1	0.7–0.3
2nd	10–9	4–1	1–1	1.0–0.6
3rd	11–4	4–0	0–0	1.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: -0.16

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 15
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.16
GSAx: -0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:12Penalty
1st 6:25Penalty
1st 10:53Jack Devine (1–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 5:48Luke Haymes (1–1)low · 32 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 8:03Penalty
2nd 14:04Penalty
2nd 17:26Penalty
2nd 17:32Penalty
2nd 17:32Penalty
2nd 17:32Penalty
2nd 18:35Logan Shaw (1–2)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 6:32Penalty
3rd 9:13Ben Steeves (2–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 15:04Trevor Carrick (3–2)low · 19 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 18:58Penalty
3rd 18:58Penalty