Calgary Wranglers at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Calgary Wranglers

5:2

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

CGYLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

82%18%

xG: 3.01.5
High danger: 62
Chances: 147
Shots: 2918

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 69% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal18

14Scoring chances7

6High-danger chances2

2.98Expected goals1.54

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	3–4	1–2	0.7–0.8
2nd	16–5	10–3	4–0	2.0–0.5
3rd	4–6	1–0	1–0	0.3–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 15
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: -2.91

Arsenii Sergeev

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.54
GSAx: -0.46

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 9
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.89
GSAx: +0.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:15Penalty
1st 5:32Owen Beck (0–1)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
1st 12:23Penalty
1st 17:54Penalty
2nd 3:49Rory Kerins (1–1)medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 6:55William Strömgren (2–1)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 9:13Penalty
2nd 9:13Penalty
2nd 10:46Rory Kerins (3–1)medium · slap · 33 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 11:46Martin Frk (4–1)high · wrist · 24 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 12:20Sam Morton (5–1)medium · wrist · 16 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 13:48Penalty
2nd 15:57Penalty
2nd 18:28Tyler Thorpe (5–2)medium · tip · 11 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
3rd 15:40Penalty
3rd 15:40Penalty
3rd 19:12Penalty