Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

1:3

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

LVWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 2.33.6
High danger: 26
Chances: 918
Shots: 2433

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal33

9Scoring chances18

2High-danger chances6

2.28Expected goals3.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–18	2–7	0–5	0.4–1.7
2nd	6–9	3–7	1–0	0.7–1.1
3rd	12–6	4–4	1–1	1.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: +0.56

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: +1.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:32Gabe Klassen (0–1)low · 19 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 10:00Penalty
1st 13:53Avery Hayes (0–2)high · 22 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 15:08Penalty
1st 18:15Penalty
2nd 3:18Penalty
2nd 3:18Penalty
2nd 3:18Penalty
2nd 9:23Penalty
2nd 12:09Penalty
2nd 19:57Penalty
3rd 11:19Penalty
3rd 18:42Oliver Bonk (1–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 19:29Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (1–3)empty net · medium · 17 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov