Belleville Senators at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Belleville Senators

5:2

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

BELROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 1.83.2
High danger: 58
Chances: 613
Shots: 1933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal33

6Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances8

1.82Expected goals3.22

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	2–5	2–2	0.7–1.1
2nd	7–16	1–8	1–6	0.6–2.0
3rd	5–5	3–0	2–0	0.5–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jackson Parsons

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.22
GSAx: +1.22

Scott Ratzlaff

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 13
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.44
GSAx: -0.56

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 4
Saves: 1
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.38
GSAx: -2.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:44Garrett Pilon (1–0)low · 36 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 3:31Xavier Bourgault (2–0)high · 7 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 8:00Tomas Hamara (3–0)low · 28 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 13:12Penalty
1st 14:03Anton Wahlberg (3–1)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
1st 19:16Penalty
2nd 3:12Olivier Nadeau (3–2)high · 8 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
2nd 5:52Penalty
2nd 8:22Penalty
2nd 10:09Penalty
3rd 2:57Arthur Kaliyev (4–2)low · 45 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff
3rd 9:15Penalty
3rd 13:41Penalty
3rd 13:41Penalty
3rd 13:41Penalty
3rd 18:07Xavier Bourgault (5–2)empty net · low · 86 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff