AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 3

Bakersfield Condors at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Bakersfield Condors
3:6
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

BAKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
39%61%
xG
2.43.1
High danger
25
Chances
910
Shots
2627

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal27
9Scoring chances10
2High-danger chances5
2.40Expected goals3.14

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–101–30–00.3–0.8
2nd11–103–50–31.0–1.3
3rd10–75–22–21.1–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK30:00 of the 3rd20:0012:24+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calvin Pickard
Shots faced
27
Saves
21
Allowed
6
xGA
3.14
GSAx
-2.86
Calle Clang
Shots faced
26
Saves
23
Allowed
3
xGA
2.40
GSAx
-0.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:41Penalty
  • 2nd 1:42Quinn Hutson (1–0)low · 22 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 3:16Ethan Keppen (2–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 5:00Penalty
  • 2nd 5:12Ryan Carpenter (2–1)5v4 · high · 5 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 2nd 5:25Penalty
  • 2nd 5:25Penalty
  • 2nd 5:25Cal Burke (2–2)low · 48 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 2nd 6:49Penalty
  • 2nd 8:37Justin Bailey (2–3)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 2nd 11:33Penalty
  • 2nd 13:37Penalty
  • 2nd 13:37Penalty
  • 2nd 14:20Penalty
  • 2nd 15:43Justin Bailey (2–4)4v5 · grade A · 8 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 2nd 19:14Sasha Pastujov (2–5)high · 14 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 3rd 0:43Penalty
  • 3rd 3:20Penalty
  • 3rd 4:33Quinn Hutson (3–5)4v5 · medium · 32 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 3rd 12:32Matthew Phillips (3–6)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty