AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 3

Tucson Roadrunners at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Tucson Roadrunners
3:4
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

TUCHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
60%40%
xG
2.11.6
High danger
42
Chances
65
Shots
3021

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal21
6Scoring chances5
4High-danger chances2
2.06Expected goals1.61

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–71–11–10.3–0.5
2nd14–73–32–11.2–0.6
3rd12–72–11–00.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC119:36 of the 3rd0:240:24+0.007 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
30
Saves
27
Allowed
3
xGA
2.06
GSAx
-0.94
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
21
Saves
17
Allowed
4
xGA
1.61
GSAx
-2.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:35Penalty
  • 1st 11:21Austin Poganski (1–0)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 13:34Penalty
  • 1st 13:34Penalty
  • 2nd 2:01Penalty
  • 2nd 2:01Penalty
  • 2nd 2:57Sammy Walker (2–0)low · wrist · 27 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 6:36Penalty
  • 2nd 6:36Penalty
  • 2nd 10:52Daniil But (3–0)high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 11:36Penalty
  • 2nd 12:15Matyas Sapovaliv (3–1)5v4 · high · tip · 7 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 14:29Matyas Sapovaliv (3–2)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 8:49Tanner Laczynski (3–3)low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 19:36Viliam Kmec (3–4)low · wrist · rebound · 38 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber