Grand Rapids Griffins at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Grand Rapids Griffins

7:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

GRMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 3.32.3
High danger: 53
Chances: 148
Shots: 2833

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal33

14Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances3

3.28Expected goals2.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	6–2	2–2	1.3–0.8
2nd	9–12	3–4	2–1	0.9–1.1
3rd	10–9	5–2	1–0	1.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: +0.32

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 14
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.89
GSAx: -2.11

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 7
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.39
GSAx: -1.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:15Penalty
1st 13:48John Leonard (1–0)5v4 · low · 43 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 18:30Penalty
1st 19:05Penalty
1st 19:57Sheldon Dries (2–0)low · 39 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 1:43Dylan Anhorn (2–1)low · 61 ft · beat Michal Postava
2nd 2:28Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (3–1)low · 12 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 2:38Colby Barlow (3–2)high · 7 ft · beat Michal Postava
2nd 3:48Anton Johansson (4–2)low · 57 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 10:53Eddie Genborg (5–2)high · 22 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 4:25Antti Tuomisto (6–2)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 18:11Jakub Rychlovský (7–2)medium · 9 ft · beat Thomas Milic