Hershey Bears at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Hershey Bears

8:1

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

HERHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

88%12%

xG: 3.22.0
High danger: 60
Chances: 135
Shots: 2935

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal35

13Scoring chances5

6High-danger chances0

3.24Expected goals2.02

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	5–1	2–0	1.1–0.6
2nd	13–10	7–2	4–0	1.7–0.6
3rd	6–15	1–2	0–0	0.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitch Gibson

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.02
GSAx: +1.02

Callum Tung

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 10
Allowed: 6
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: -4.05

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 11
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.29
GSAx: -0.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:16Andrew Cristall (1–0)low · 19 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 11:05Penalty
1st 11:05Penalty
1st 14:23Andrew Cristall (2–0)low · 16 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 0:10Bryce McConnell-Barker (2–1)low · 15 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
2nd 3:37Ilya Protas (3–1)low · 35 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 5:19Kyler Kupka (4–1)high · 8 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 11:22Bogdan Trineyev (5–1)high · 18 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 11:36Dalton Smith (6–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 14:11Penalty
2nd 14:11Penalty
2nd 14:11Penalty
2nd 14:11Penalty
2nd 19:53Penalty
3rd 8:20Bogdan Trineyev (7–1)low · 20 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 16:25Andrew Cristall (8–1)low · 28 ft · beat Spencer Martin