Iowa Wild at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Iowa Wild

4:0

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

IARFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

81%19%

xG: 2.71.1
High danger: 32
Chances: 73
Shots: 3214

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal14

7Scoring chances3

3High-danger chances2

2.71Expected goals1.05

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–4	2–1	0–1	0.6–0.3
2nd	15–4	4–2	2–1	1.5–0.5
3rd	9–6	1–0	1–0	0.6–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	3:53 of the 3rd	16:07	16:07	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.71
GSAx: -1.29

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 14
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.05
GSAx: +1.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:58Penalty
2nd 0:47Penalty
2nd 5:46Penalty
2nd 6:56Caedan Bankier (1–0)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 16:25Gerry Mayhew (2–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 3:53Will Zmolek (3–0)grade A · rebound · 24 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 15:51Penalty
3rd 18:20Riley Heidt (4–0)empty net · low · 70 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 19:19Penalty