AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 4

Bakersfield Condors at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Bakersfield Condors
3:6
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

BAKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
47%53%
xG
2.72.6
High danger
46
Chances
137
Shots
2331

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal31
13Scoring chances7
4High-danger chances6
2.70Expected goals2.61

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–96–12–11.5–0.5
2nd8–125–21–20.8–1.0
3rd3–102–41–30.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
31
Saves
25
Allowed
6
xGA
2.61
GSAx
-3.39
Erik Portillo
Shots faced
23
Saves
20
Allowed
3
xGA
2.70
GSAx
-0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:01Penalty
  • 1st 1:01Penalty
  • 1st 1:01Penalty
  • 1st 1:47Roby Järventie (1–0)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 1st 2:18Penalty
  • 1st 11:40Penalty
  • 1st 11:40Penalty
  • 1st 12:01Glenn Gawdin (1–1)high · 7 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 16:04Penalty
  • 1st 19:06Sam Poulin (2–1)high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 0:47Penalty
  • 2nd 1:33Andre Lee (2–2)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 8:07James Hamblin (3–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 8:15Penalty
  • 2nd 9:21Jack Hughes (3–3)4v5 · low · 13 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 11:44Nikita Alexandrov (3–4)high · 6 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 11:55Penalty
  • 2nd 11:55Penalty
  • 2nd 13:12Penalty
  • 2nd 13:20Penalty
  • 2nd 17:18Penalty
  • 3rd 2:18Aatu Jämsen (3–5)high · 14 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 6:01Penalty
  • 3rd 9:07Penalty
  • 3rd 17:46Nikita Alexandrov (3–6)empty net · low · 125 ft · beat Matt Tomkins