AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 4

Tucson Roadrunners at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Tucson Roadrunners
4:5
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

TUCHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
81%19%
xG
3.52.0
High danger
81
Chances
147
Shots
2927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal27
14Scoring chances7
8High-danger chances1
3.50Expected goals2.00

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–56–24–01.6–0.4
2nd9–114–32–01.0–0.7
3rd9–114–22–10.9–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−1TUC0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK116:56 of the 3rd3:041:38+0.052 pts
TUC119:44 of the 3rd0:160:16+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
3.50
GSAx
-0.50
Michael Hrabal
Shots faced
27
Saves
22
Allowed
5
xGA
2.00
GSAx
-3.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:06Daniil But (1–0)medium · backhand · 10 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 9:09Penalty
  • 1st 10:22Raphael Lavoie (1–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 21 ft · beat Michael Hrabal
  • 1st 13:43Austin Poganski (2–1)high · tip · 17 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 15:11Jonas Røndbjerg (2–2)medium · tip · 16 ft · beat Michael Hrabal
  • 2nd 3:21Penalty
  • 2nd 15:54Braeden Bowman (2–3)medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Michael Hrabal
  • 3rd 6:04Sammy Walker (3–3)high · backhand · 9 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 14:13Sammy Walker (4–3)medium · wrist · 23 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 18:34Dylan Coghlan (4–4)low · wrist · 58 ft · beat Michael Hrabal
  • 3rd 19:44Braeden Bowman (4–5)low · wrist · 12 ft · beat Michael Hrabal