San Diego Gulls at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

San Diego Gulls

5:2

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

SDSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 2.53.6
High danger: 44
Chances: 1013
Shots: 2637

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal37

10Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances4

2.49Expected goals3.59

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	2–2	1–0	0.6–0.7
2nd	10–10	4–6	2–3	1.1–1.3
3rd	8–16	4–5	1–1	0.8–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.59
GSAx: +1.59

Laurent Brossoit

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: -2.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:10Matthew Phillips (1–0)medium · 12 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 12:01Penalty
1st 12:33Oliver Wahlstrom (1–1)5v4 · medium · 43 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 16:38Patrick Giles (1–2)low · 57 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 0:24Penalty
2nd 6:08Penalty
2nd 14:01Sasha Pastujov (2–2)low · 44 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
2nd 15:54Nathan Gaucher (3–2)high · 9 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
2nd 17:08Penalty
3rd 4:06Penalty
3rd 4:20Sam Colangelo (4–2)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 7:30Penalty
3rd 16:14Penalty
3rd 19:51Nathan Gaucher (5–2)empty net · low · 184 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit