AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, April 7

Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals
3:4
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
61%39%
xG
2.82.7
High danger
54
Chances
108
Shots
3530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal30
10Scoring chances8
5High-danger chances4
2.75Expected goals2.70

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–123–32–21.0–1.2
2nd15–94–32–20.9–1.0
3rd9–93–21–00.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−3−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL30:00 of the 3rd20:009:54+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
2.75
GSAx
-0.25
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
2.70
GSAx
-1.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:08Jaret Anderson-Dolan (0–1)low · 30 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 1:09Isaak Phillips (0–2)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 4:42Penalty
  • 1st 8:21Penalty
  • 1st 15:33Penalty
  • 1st 16:46Penalty
  • 1st 16:46Penalty
  • 1st 18:59Ashton Sautner (0–3)low · 50 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 0:42Kale Clague (0–4)low · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 7:18Penalty
  • 2nd 8:59Penalty
  • 2nd 14:15Penalty
  • 2nd 14:15Penalty
  • 2nd 16:28Kalan Lind (1–4)low · 47 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 16:32Penalty
  • 3rd 0:16Penalty
  • 3rd 6:50Jake Lucchini (2–4)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 11:54Aiden Fink (3–4)medium · 15 ft · beat Thomas Milic