Milwaukee Admirals at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Milwaukee Admirals

7:0

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

MILMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

95%5%

xG: 3.71.0
High danger: 100
Chances: 172
Shots: 3016

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal16

17Scoring chances2

10High-danger chances0

3.69Expected goals0.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–6	3–1	2–0	0.9–0.4
2nd	15–3	8–0	5–0	1.6–0.1
3rd	8–7	6–1	3–0	1.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 14
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.98
GSAx: -1.02

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 16
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.96
GSAx: +0.96

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 9
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: -2.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:29Penalty
1st 1:46Shawn Element (1–0)4v5 · high · 14 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 11:15Kalan Lind (2–0)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 2:02Joey Willis (3–0)medium · 31 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 3:22Penalty
2nd 4:18Cole O’Hara (4–0)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 13:37Penalty
3rd 2:54Kyle Marino (5–0)high · 7 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 5:40Penalty
3rd 8:03Penalty
3rd 9:03Cole O’Hara (6–0)5v4 · medium · 11 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 9:46Penalty
3rd 19:14Penalty
3rd 19:14Penalty
3rd 19:49Joey Willis (7–0)high · 14 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis