Iowa Wild at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Iowa Wild

4:0

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

IATEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 2.72.5
High danger: 52
Chances: 109
Shots: 2930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal30

10Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances2

2.72Expected goals2.52

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–8	2–0	0–0	0.5–0.4
2nd	9–12	2–6	0–1	0.7–1.3
3rd	12–10	6–3	5–1	1.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	3	7:07 of the 3rd	12:53	12:53	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 30
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.51
GSAx: +2.51

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: -1.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:39Penalty
1st 3:56Penalty
1st 18:15Penalty
1st 18:15Penalty
2nd 6:03Penalty
2nd 13:47Penalty
2nd 16:07Penalty
2nd 16:52Hunter Haight (1–0)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 18:33Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 1:42Penalty
3rd 1:42Penalty
3rd 4:29Caedan Bankier (2–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 4:46Penalty
3rd 5:20Penalty
3rd 5:20Penalty
3rd 5:20Penalty
3rd 7:07David Špaček (3–0)5v4 · high · 30 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 17:20Gerry Mayhew (4–0)empty net · high · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier