Tucson Roadrunners at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

2:5

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TUCBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.43.6
High danger: 38
Chances: 811
Shots: 2728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal28

8Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances8

2.36Expected goals3.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–6	2–1	0–1	0.4–0.5
2nd	5–12	2–4	1–2	0.6–1.4
3rd	14–10	4–6	2–5	1.4–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: -1.36

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.36
GSAx: +0.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 3:52Ethan Keppen (0–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 4:18Andrew Agozzino (1–1)high · 17 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 5:25Penalty
2nd 9:59Isaac Howard (1–2)low · 29 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 15:16Penalty
2nd 15:39Penalty
2nd 18:09Penalty
2nd 19:51Penalty
3rd 4:21Daniel D’Amato (1–3)grade A · rebound · 2 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 5:32Robbie Russo (2–3)low · 57 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 10:57Penalty
3rd 10:57Penalty
3rd 14:23Penalty
3rd 18:33Roby Järventie (2–4)empty net · low · 161 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 19:42Quinn Hutson (2–5)empty net · low · 102 ft · beat Matthew Villalta