Providence Bruins at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Providence Bruins

4:1

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

PROHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 2.82.0
High danger: 41
Chances: 138
Shots: 2824

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 40% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal24

13Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances1

2.78Expected goals2.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	4–1	1–0	1.0–0.4
2nd	11–6	6–1	1–0	1.2–0.5
3rd	5–12	3–6	2–1	0.6–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.78
GSAx: -1.22

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.03
GSAx: +1.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:45Frederic Brunet (1–0)medium · 11 ft · beat Spencer Martin
2nd 1:47Penalty
2nd 2:36Georgii Merkulov (2–0)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Spencer Martin
2nd 3:30Penalty
2nd 4:20Penalty
2nd 17:47John Farinacci (3–0)medium · 20 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 4:17Penalty
3rd 16:31Brody Lamb (3–1)low · 40 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 17:07Penalty
3rd 17:07Penalty
3rd 17:07Penalty
3rd 18:41Penalty
3rd 19:56Jake Schmaltz (4–1)empty net · low · 127 ft · beat Spencer Martin