AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 10

Toronto Marlies at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Toronto Marlies
3:6
Final
Utica Comets

The sheet

TORUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
23%77%
xG
1.92.5
High danger
15
Chances
510
Shots
2226

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
UTC above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal26
5Scoring chances10
1High-danger chances5
1.86Expected goals2.49

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–82–31–11.0–0.6
2nd7–72–20–10.4–0.7
3rd6–111–50–30.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
26
Saves
20
Allowed
6
xGA
2.49
GSAx
-3.51
Jakub Málek
Shots faced
22
Saves
19
Allowed
3
xGA
1.86
GSAx
-1.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:19Austin Strand (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 18:31Penalty
  • 1st 18:31Penalty
  • 2nd 7:34Alex Nylander (1–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Jakub Málek
  • 2nd 8:21Penalty
  • 2nd 11:16Penalty
  • 2nd 13:45Mikaël Diotte (1–2)low · 27 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 18:19Penalty
  • 2nd 19:00Penalty
  • 2nd 19:13Matyas Melovsky (1–3)5v4 · high · 38 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 2:46Vinni Lettieri (2–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Jakub Málek
  • 3rd 3:28Penalty
  • 3rd 4:05Nathan Légaré (2–4)4v5 · medium · 37 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 10:21Penalty
  • 3rd 14:06Calen Addison (2–5)low · 17 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 14:24Borya Valis (3–5)low · 51 ft · beat Jakub Málek
  • 3rd 19:06Austin Strand (3–6)empty net · low · 177 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby