Abbotsford Canucks at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Abbotsford Canucks

5:4

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ABBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

72%28%

xG: 5.02.8
High danger: 85
Chances: 209
Shots: 4228

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal28

20Scoring chances9

8High-danger chances5

5.05Expected goals2.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–12	6–3	0–0	1.2–1.0
2nd	14–12	8–5	5–5	2.3–1.5
3rd	15–4	6–1	3–0	1.6–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:18	+0.052 pts
CGY	1	19:22 of the 3rd	0:38	0:38	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arsenii Sergeev

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 37
Allowed: 5
xGA: 5.05
GSAx: +0.05

Ty Young

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: -1.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:31Clark Bishop (0–1)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 1:19Penalty
2nd 4:44Bennett Schimek (1–1)medium · snap · 26 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
2nd 5:56Penalty
2nd 6:24Clark Bishop (1–2)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 13 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 8:04Penalty
2nd 11:31Penalty
2nd 13:05Rory Kerins (1–3)5v4 · high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 14:34Danila Klimovich (2–3)grade A · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
2nd 18:52David Silye (2–4)high · wrist · 19 ft · beat Ty Young
3rd 4:13Ben Berard (3–4)medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
3rd 17:14Danila Klimovich (4–4)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
3rd 19:22Ben Berard (5–4)grade A · wrist · rebound · 17 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev