Tucson Roadrunners at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Tucson Roadrunners

5:2

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

TUCCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 2.73.1
High danger: 57
Chances: 1113
Shots: 2637

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal37

11Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances7

2.70Expected goals3.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	3–7	1–3	0.9–1.4
2nd	8–15	3–4	2–3	0.8–1.2
3rd	8–9	5–2	2–1	0.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.08
GSAx: +1.08

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: -2.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:05Penalty
1st 11:14Scott Perunovich (1–0)medium · 12 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 12:41Ivan Ivan (1–1)high · 10 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 17:33Michal Kunc (2–1)low · 36 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 7:45Cameron Hebig (3–1)grade A · 7 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 10:53Chase Bradley (3–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 18:20Penalty
3rd 5:10Penalty
3rd 7:04Max Szuber (4–2)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 17:54Cameron Hebig (5–2)empty net · high · 165 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 18:25Penalty