San Diego Gulls at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Diego Gulls

3:5

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SDBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

24%76%

xG: 2.63.5
High danger: 25
Chances: 912
Shots: 3333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal33

9Scoring chances12

2High-danger chances5

2.64Expected goals3.54

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–13	2–4	0–2	0.5–1.1
2nd	8–14	2–8	0–3	0.6–2.0
3rd	19–6	5–0	2–0	1.6–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calvin Pickard

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: -0.36

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 28
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.54
GSAx: -1.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:17Roger McQueen (1–0)low · wrist · 32 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
1st 4:32William Nicholl (1–1)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 5:19Roby Järventie (1–2)high · backhand · 11 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 9:20Penalty
1st 13:40Justin Bailey (2–2)medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Calvin Pickard
1st 14:38Penalty
2nd 1:42Penalty
2nd 3:41Penalty
2nd 3:50Atro Leppänen (2–3)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 6:40Penalty
2nd 12:26Penalty
2nd 14:28Alec Regula (2–4)low · snap · 38 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 16:21Roby Järventie (2–5)medium · wrist · 12 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 18:43Sasha Pastujov (3–5)high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Calvin Pickard