Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

1:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

9%91%

xG: 1.74.6
High danger: 19
Chances: 421
Shots: 2235

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal35

4Scoring chances21

1High-danger chances9

1.73Expected goals4.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–19	2–13	0–6	0.6–3.0
2nd	8–9	1–3	0–1	0.6–0.8
3rd	6–7	1–5	1–2	0.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.64
GSAx: +0.64

Hampton Slukynsky

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: +0.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:02Penalty
1st 12:00Penalty
1st 12:59Logan Brown (0–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Victor Östman
1st 17:14Penalty
2nd 1:44Francesco Pinelli (0–2)low · 29 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 4:16Kenta Isogai (0–3)medium · 8 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 7:12Jakov Novak (1–3)low · 25 ft · beat Hampton Slukynsky
3rd 1:50Penalty
3rd 17:07Francesco Pinelli (1–4)empty net · medium · 29 ft · beat Victor Östman