Hershey Bears at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hershey Bears

2:1

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HERCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.01.8
High danger: 32
Chances: 88
Shots: 1922

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 67% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal22

8Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances2

2.00Expected goals1.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–11	1–5	0–0	0.3–0.9
2nd	11–6	6–1	3–1	1.5–0.4
3rd	4–5	1–2	0–1	0.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.77
GSAx: +0.77

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 17
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.00
GSAx: -0.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:23Penalty
1st 7:13Bogdan Trineyev (1–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 14:00Penalty
2nd 19:58Louie Belpedio (2–0)low · 61 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 1:04Penalty
3rd 4:11Mikulas Hovorka (2–1)medium · 28 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 16:14Penalty
3rd 16:14Penalty