Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack

3:1

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 1.83.7
High danger: 48
Chances: 715
Shots: 2037

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal37

7Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances8

1.79Expected goals3.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	2–2	2–2	0.6–1.0
2nd	5–13	4–5	1–1	0.8–1.1
3rd	8–12	1–8	1–5	0.4–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Callum Tung

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.69
GSAx: +2.69

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.80
GSAx: -1.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:58Anton Blidh (1–0)high · 10 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 8:21Penalty
1st 9:01Brendan Brisson (2–0)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 9:40Scott Morrow (3–0)low · 66 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 13:28Hugh McGing (3–1)high · 22 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 16:31Penalty
1st 19:06Penalty
1st 19:06Penalty
1st 19:56Penalty
1st 19:56Penalty
1st 19:56Penalty
2nd 8:22Penalty
2nd 8:22Penalty
2nd 13:08Penalty
2nd 13:15Penalty
2nd 14:15Penalty
2nd 18:49Penalty
2nd 18:49Penalty
2nd 18:49Penalty
3rd 13:06Penalty