Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs

5:2

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 2.02.3
High danger: 53
Chances: 88
Shots: 2328

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 70% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal28

8Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances3

2.00Expected goals2.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	3–2	2–0	0.9–0.5
2nd	6–13	3–4	2–2	0.6–1.2
3rd	7–8	2–2	1–1	0.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: +0.33

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.00
GSAx: -2.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:16Alex Doucet (0–1)low · 39 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 10:16Ryan Gagnier (1–1)low · 10 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 11:38Kevin Lombardi (2–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 15:44Penalty
2nd 3:29Penalty
2nd 7:51Penalty
2nd 14:46Penalty
3rd 1:07Sheldon Dries (2–2)high · 10 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 2:29Dmitry Kuzmin (3–2)low · 66 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 3:38Penalty
3rd 4:07Penalty
3rd 6:40Penalty
3rd 9:46Penalty
3rd 16:51Penalty
3rd 19:25Taige Harding (4–2)empty net · low · 146 ft
3rd 19:36Rem Pitlick (5–2)empty net · high · 13 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa