Utica Comets at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Utica Comets

1:5

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

UTCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 3.03.9
High danger: 66
Chances: 1118
Shots: 2834

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal34

11Scoring chances18

6High-danger chances6

2.98Expected goals3.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–12	6–6	3–4	1.7–1.6
2nd	4–14	1–8	1–1	0.3–1.5
3rd	9–8	4–4	2–1	0.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 29
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.86
GSAx: -1.14

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.98
GSAx: +1.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:53Xavier Parent (1–0)low · 47 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 5:52Penalty
1st 9:31Penalty
1st 13:26Penalty
1st 15:05Nick Abruzzese (1–1)5v4 · high · 4 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 17:19Lucas Mercuri (1–2)low · 17 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 18:16Penalty
2nd 1:08Penalty
2nd 2:45Lucas Mercuri (1–3)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 3:37Penalty
2nd 9:24Penalty
2nd 14:58Penalty
2nd 17:44Gabriel Szturc (1–4)medium · 33 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 18:08Penalty
3rd 6:33Penalty
3rd 6:33Penalty
3rd 9:31Noah Steen (1–5)medium · 17 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 10:47Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty