Bridgeport Islanders at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

3:7

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

BRILVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

57%43%

xG: 3.32.4
High danger: 35
Chances: 109
Shots: 4122

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal22

10Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances5

3.29Expected goals2.39

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–12	3–4	1–3	1.2–1.4
2nd	11–6	4–4	0–1	0.9–0.8
3rd	17–4	3–1	2–1	1.2–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	18:23	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 38
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.28
GSAx: +0.28

Josh Kotai

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 10
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.38
GSAx: -1.62

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 5
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.01
GSAx: -2.99

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:13Phil Tomasino (0–1)low · 31 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 5:11Karsen Dorwart (0–2)low · 48 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 6:17Penalty
1st 6:44Penalty
1st 7:46Cole Eiserman (1–2)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 8:51Alex Jefferies (2–2)grade A · rebound · 24 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 11:52Jacob Gaucher (2–3)low · 32 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 15:08Jacob Gaucher (2–4)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 15:30Zayde Wisdom (2–5)high · 18 ft · beat Josh Kotai
2nd 1:51Penalty
2nd 3:11Penalty
2nd 6:20Penalty
2nd 6:20Penalty
2nd 8:34Penalty
2nd 9:57Penalty
2nd 15:22Penalty
3rd 10:32Victor Eklund (3–5)low · 41 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 17:19Penalty
3rd 17:32Zayde Wisdom (3–6)empty net · low · 141 ft · beat Josh Kotai
3rd 18:17Jacob Gaucher (3–7)empty net · low · 125 ft · beat Josh Kotai