Abbotsford Canucks at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Abbotsford Canucks

4:0

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ABBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 1.71.6
High danger: 21
Chances: 53
Shots: 2024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal24

5Scoring chances3

2High-danger chances1

1.71Expected goals1.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–4	2–0	1–0	0.8–0.2
2nd	5–10	3–2	1–1	0.5–0.7
3rd	7–10	0–1	0–0	0.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	3	5:15 of the 3rd	14:45	14:45	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ty Young

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 24
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.62
GSAx: +1.62

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: -2.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:51Riley Patterson (1–0)low · wrist · 41 ft · beat Connor Murphy
1st 9:22Penalty
1st 9:33Arshdeep Bains (2–0)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 16 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 5:15Dino Kambeitz (3–0)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 13:24Penalty
3rd 19:43Bennett Schimek (4–0)empty net · low · 52 ft · beat Connor Murphy