San Jose Barracuda at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

San Jose Barracuda

1:4

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

SJHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.63.5
High danger: 39
Chances: 814
Shots: 2728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal28

8Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances9

2.64Expected goals3.52

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	3–3	3–2	1.3–0.9
2nd	8–6	4–5	0–2	0.7–0.9
3rd	9–15	1–6	0–5	0.6–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Laurent Brossoit

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.52
GSAx: -0.48

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: +1.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:14Penalty
1st 10:56Kasper Halttunen (1–0)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 17 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 16:21Penalty
1st 16:21Penalty
1st 16:21Penalty
1st 17:39Jackson Hallum (1–1)4v5 · low · wrist · 27 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 19:23Braeden Bowman (1–2)grade A · tip · 8 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
2nd 6:51Penalty
2nd 7:26Penalty
2nd 10:35Penalty
3rd 6:08Penalty
3rd 6:47Trevor Connelly (1–3)5v4 · low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 7:51Penalty
3rd 18:07Matyas Sapovaliv (1–4)empty net · high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit