AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 11

San Diego Gulls at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Diego Gulls
7:3
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SDBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
32%68%
xG
3.14.0
High danger
58
Chances
913
Shots
3339

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal39
9Scoring chances13
5High-danger chances8
3.09Expected goals4.00

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–144–50–31.1–1.4
2nd12–83–23–11.5–0.8
3rd7–172–62–40.5–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK30:00 of the 3rd20:0016:04+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Damian Clara
Shots faced
39
Saves
36
Allowed
3
xGA
4.01
GSAx
+1.01
Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
33
Saves
26
Allowed
7
xGA
3.09
GSAx
-3.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:35Yegor Sidorov (1–0)low · wrist · 49 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 10:02Penalty
  • 1st 15:23Seth Griffith (1–1)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Damian Clara
  • 1st 17:23Penalty
  • 1st 19:08Penalty
  • 1st 19:40Viljami Marjala (1–2)5v4 · high · wrist · rebound · 11 ft · beat Damian Clara
  • 2nd 4:56Penalty
  • 2nd 5:32Matthew Phillips (2–2)5v4 · low · wrist · 39 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 8:51Nathan Gaucher (3–2)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 11:36Justin Bailey (4–2)high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 11:56Nico Myatovic (5–2)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 13:55Penalty
  • 2nd 19:25Penalty
  • 3rd 8:13Tommy Lafreniere (5–3)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Damian Clara
  • 3rd 18:04Tristan Luneau (6–3)empty net · low · wrist · 57 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 19:01Penalty
  • 3rd 19:54Stian Solberg (7–3)empty net · low · wrist · 160 ft · beat Matt Tomkins