AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, April 12

Hershey Bears at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hershey Bears
1:6
Final
Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HERCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
8%92%
xG
1.54.6
High danger
113
Chances
418
Shots
2133

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CLT above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 67% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal33
4Scoring chances18
1High-danger chances13
1.52Expected goals4.57

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–81–50–30.3–1.0
2nd3–120–90–80.2–2.3
3rd12–133–41–21.0–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER38:28 of the 3rd11:3211:32+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitch Gibson
Shots faced
33
Saves
27
Allowed
6
xGA
4.57
GSAx
-1.43
Louis Domingue
Shots faced
21
Saves
20
Allowed
1
xGA
1.52
GSAx
+0.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:28Jack Studnicka (0–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 1st 2:31Penalty
  • 1st 5:48Penalty
  • 1st 9:56Penalty
  • 1st 19:32Penalty
  • 2nd 3:01Penalty
  • 2nd 4:54Sandis Vilmanis (0–2)5v4 · grade A · 7 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 2nd 6:29Penalty
  • 2nd 6:29Penalty
  • 2nd 12:01Alex Suzdalev (1–2)low · 14 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 2nd 15:26Sandis Vilmanis (1–3)high · 22 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 3rd 8:28Jake Livingstone (1–4)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 3rd 10:12Penalty
  • 3rd 17:02Sandis Vilmanis (1–5)medium · 23 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 3rd 18:58Sandis Vilmanis (1–6)low · 36 ft · beat Mitch Gibson